GENERAL election campaigning has begun as parties ramp up the fight for Number 10. But according to some forecasts, it’s a sure win for the Conservatives.
Polling sites are all showing a reasonable win expected for the Conservative Party ahead of the December 12 general election. Of course, polls have been wrong before and five weeks is a long time in politics. But one highly regarded site suggests the current lead would result in a landslide for Boris Johnson, strengthening his mandate to “get Brexit done”.
The Electoral Calculus, considered the “leading vote/seat predictors on the internet” by academics, tracks polls from across the nation.
According to the latest data, taken from opinion polls between October 25 and November 4 of 15,917 people, the Tories can expect a 96 seat majority.
Putting the Tories in the lead with 38.2 percent, Labour trails in second with 27.2 percent, translating to 182 seats.
The Lib Dems are in third, with 15.9 percent – 25 seats – and the Brexit Party in fourth with 10.2 percent, but no predicted seats.
Other polling sites show similarly promising outcomes for the Tories.
YouGov’s recent voting intention poll surveyed 3,284 British adults between November 5 and 6.
The poll put the Tories ahead with a strong lead of 36 percent, trailed by Labour with 25 percent.
Lib Dems are in third with 17 percent, and the Brexit Party in fourth with 11 percent.
However, despite the apparent landslide for the Conservatives, a deeper look at the polls pains a gloomy picture.
Another YouGov poll which surveyed more than 3,000 people for The Times shows more people think the Tories are doing a bad job rather than a good one.
In all categories, the public said they believed the Tories were doing a bad job rather than a good one.
This included the economy (45 percent suggesting they were doing a bad job compared with 43 percent saying they were doing a good one), maintaining law and order (58 percent against 33 percent), running the NHS (65 percent versus 27 percent) and running the education system (58 percent against 29 percent).
These bleak polls will be a blow to the Prime Minister, who launched the party’s general election claim with a pledge to deliver Brexit and refocus on domestic policy.
The same poll also asked who the public thought would be a good prime minister, and whether respondents thought life would get better or worse depending on who won the election.
Again, the results paint a dire picture for the leaders of the nation.
More than half (54 percent) think the country is heading in the wrong direction and only 17 percent think the Government is doing a good job and should remain in office.
Of those polled, 28 percent think Mr Johnson’s Government is doing a bad job, but that it is better than any of the alternatives, and 37 percent hope the Tories are replaced.
Faith in other potential leaders is hardly more encouraging.
Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn received just 18 percent of public trust while 73 percent said they did not trust him.
The Lib Dems Jo Swinson also came up unfavourable, with 22 percent to 54 percent saying she’s untrustworthy.
The Brexit Party’s Nigel Farage also does not hold the public faith, with 25 percent trusting him against 65 percent who do not.